The “canaries in the coal mine”

Jake Grovum

Take it for what it’s worth, but ABC’s George Stephanopoulos has given his pre-Election Day analysis, saying there are six, count them, six states to be on the lookout for early on tomorrow night. I won’t take the time to reword his whole post, so you can read it below or see the orginal here. “Here are the six states to watch between 7pm and 8pm tomorrow night: Virginia and Indiana after the last polls close at 7pm, Ohio and North Carolina after 7:30pm, and then Pennsylvania and Florida after 8pm. These are the canaries in the coal mine. McCain campaign manager Rick Davis conceded on “This Week” that John McCain has to win five out of six of these states to have a viable path to the presidency. He could get there by holding all of the Bush states — Indiana, Virginia, Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina — and losing Pennsylvania. But he will then need to secure Nevada, Iowa, and Colorado and all the rest of the GOP safe seats later in the evening. That puts him at 270. Or, if McCain manages a long shot win in Pennsylvania, his possibilities open up. He could then lose Iowa, New Mexico, and Colorado, and still win. Or, he could lose Indiana in that scenario and still win. But if in these early states Obama holds on to Pennsylvania and wins just one more — any of the other five — only a John McCain miracle later in the evening can deny Obama the White House. ” You read it here, folks, or rather on ABC. Check out these states for your early election-night fix.