With slumping approval ratings for a Democrat-controlled White House and Congress facing midterm elections, this is supposed to be the comeback year for Republicans. But for MinnesotaâÄôs gubernatorial race, a Minnesota Public Radio News and Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs poll released Wednesday indicates otherwise.

The poll shows DFL candidate Mark Dayton at 38 percent, Republican Tom Emmer at 27 percent and Tom Horner of the Independence Party at 16 percent. Only a month ago, polls showed a dead heat between Dayton and Emmer, with the two tied at 34 percent each.
 

So what changed in the four weeks between polls?
 

For starters, more people are paying attention to the race. According to an August poll, 43 percent of Democrats and 52 percent of Republicans said that they were greatly interested in the November elections. Those numbers have skyrocketed to 83 percent for both parties.

As the race has progressed, more details of the candidatesâÄô policies have emerged, which has only hurt Emmer. ItâÄôs easy to ride the rhetorical wave of smaller government, but when budget cuts become tangible, voters see the consequences. The truth is that in Minnesota most voters donâÄôt mind paying for robust government.
 

Indeed, a Star Tribune Minnesota Poll released last week asked potential voters to choose between âÄúsome tax increasesâÄù and service reductions. When K-12 education and health care were mentioned in the reductions, only 25 percent of the respondents said theypreferred the cuts.

The Star Tribune poll also found that more than 60 percent of Minnesotans favor DaytonâÄôs plan to increase taxes on the rich, cutting a hole in the GOPâÄôs anti-tax platform.
 

Despite the smaller government narrative sweeping across the country, DFL State Party Chairman Brian Melendez said he isnâÄôt surprised by the pollsâÄô findings. âÄúThere is no candidate in the race who is not going to raise taxes,âÄù Melendez said. âÄúThe question is which taxes are you going to raise and on whom.âÄù

Melendez said Horner would raise taxes on everyone directly by expanding the sales tax, while EmmerâÄôs policies would indirectly raise taxes as local governments would be forced to increase property taxes to compensate for cuts in aid to local government.
 

Also hurting EmmerâÄôs campaign is the widening split between moderate and conservative Republicans and a right-leaning third party candidate.
In a race that features a strong third party candidate, locking down the base is imperative and Emmer has not done so. The MPR and Humphrey Institute poll shows that Emmer has lost 22 percent of the Republican base to Horner, who former Gov. Arne Carlson, a popular moderate Republican endorsed.
 

But the race will likely be decided by the 18 percent of voters who are undecided. And their demographics donâÄôt bode well for Emmer. Dayton appears to be the front-runner heading into the last leg of the race. By parlaying a fissured Republican Party and an electorate with affections for government services.
 

Still, if recent election history has taught us anything, itâÄôs that in Minnesota, elections go down to the wire. Anything can happen in the 30 days left in the campaign season.