Throughout the 2010 campaign season, the plan proposed by each of the three main gubernatorial candidates to solve MinnesotaâÄôs $5.8 billion budget deficit has been dissected, analyzed, scrutinized and chastised by members of the public and the media.
While diligently examining their positions is an important civic duty, it is equally as important to consider that simply electing a candidate does not guarantee that his or her proposals will actually be adopted. MinnesotaâÄôs future will ultimately be shaped by the result of political wrangling between the governor and the Legislature.
On Friday, state House and Senate majority and minority leaders appeared on Minnesota Public RadioâÄôs Midday program to discuss a variety of issues, including how they would work with the potential governors.
Senate Majority Leader Larry Pogemiller, DFL-Minneapolis, told host Gary Eichten that the DFL would put party affiliation aside to work effectively with any of the candidates.
“Once the people make their decision you do what has to be done to have a successful governance,” Pogemiller said.
But House Majority Leader Tony Sertich, DFL-Chisholm, made clear that regardless of who is elected, the Legislature is no rubber stamp for the governor.
However, of the three potential governors, DFLer Mark Dayton would be the most likely to get the heart of his budget plan passed by the Legislature if his party retains control of both the House and Senate.
DaytonâÄôs deficit fix relies heavily on raising revenues. He has advocated for taxing individuals earning more than $130,000 and couples earning more than $150,000 at 10.95 percent âÄî one of the highest rates in the nation.
When Eichten asked if DaytonâÄôs tax plan could pass in both chambers, neither Sertich nor Pogemiller pledged unwavering support.
“I think elements of his plan will absolutely be passed by the Legislature,” Pogemiller said.
Dayton estimates that his plan, which also includes cracking down on tax evaders, closing the snowbird loophole and adding a million-dollar homes tax, would generate more than $3.6 billion for the state. In addition, he favors paring spending by $1.2 billion but would still need to come up with another $1 billion to balance the budget.
“I think there will be slightly deeper cuts than Mark Dayton is anticipating,” Pogemiller said. “I donâÄôt think you can raise enough taxes, so…Mark might be underestimating the level of cuts that are going to have to be made.”
During the primary, Dayton distinguished himself from the DFL-endorsed Margaret Anderson Kelliher largely through his tax plan. Like Dayton, Kelliher proposed creating a higher tax bracket for MinnesotaâÄôs top earners. But her more moderate plan only affected those earning more than $250,000.
Some DFL lawmakers have expressed reluctance to fully back DaytonâÄôs tax proposals. If elected, Dayton would likely wind up signing into law tax policies more closely resembling KelliherâÄôs than his own.
Republican Tom EmmerâÄôs hell-bent approach of slashing his way to a balanced budget simply wouldnâÄôt jive with a DFL-controlled Legislature.
Despite his assertion that he would hold K-12 education funding harmless, EmmerâÄôs plan would result in schools receiving $2.3 billion less than they are currently slated during the next biennium.
Education funding âÄî which comprises nearly half of state spending âÄî has long been considered untouchable by the DFL. But in the face of a tremendous budget shortfall, DFLers may be forced to admit cuts to education could be necessary.
An Emmer administration would likely uphold Gov. Tim PawlentyâÄôs tradition of vetoing any tax increases, thereby sparking a game of political chicken with a DFL-led Legislature.
Since the Minnesota Supreme Court ruled against PawlentyâÄôs use of unallotment, the stateâÄôs next top boss may have to bend a little more to the LegislatureâÄôs will. Additionally, Emmer has proposed requiring legislative leaders to produce a response to the governorâÄôs budget by early February, giving combatants three months to hammer out a solution.
Although the next Republican governor may have to be more Gumby-like than his partisan predecessor, an Emmer-DFL bout would be an interesting showdown. Still, the advantage goes to the guy with veto power.
How Independence Party candidate Tom Horner would interact with a DFL Legislature is less certain. But if HornerâÄôs strong yet amiable demeanor on the campaign trail is similar to his governing style, a productive working relation could be expected. Nevertheless, he would have an uphill battle enacting key components of his budget plan.
HornerâÄôs proposal of expanding the sales tax has not been met with enthusiasm from the public or the Legislature. In 2009, a bill extending the sales tax to clothing valued at $100 or more stalled in the state Senate despite bipartisan support.
Horner has also proposed a gradual elimination of the corporate income tax, which would receive a tepid response at best from most DFLers, especially if raising individual income tax at the same time.
It is important to weigh the candidatesâÄô policy positions. But voters should also consider how legislative politics might change those positions.
“The LegislatureâÄôs going to bring their own ideas to the table, too,” Sertich said. “Governors donâÄôt get everything they want.”
Michael Rietmulder welcomes comments at
[email protected].