Following president-elect Donald Trump’s election in November, Americans raised concerns over future reproductive health access. 

Minnesota is viewed as a haven for reproductive health care after Gov. Tim Walz codified abortion in the Minnesota Constitution in 2023. According to Planned Parenthood North Central States, there was a 150% increase in appointments for long-lasting reversible contraception, such as intrauterine devices, after the election. 

However, that does not mean there is no reason to be concerned for its future in the state, said Adam Negri, a PhD candidate at the University of Minnesota’s Program in the  History of Medicine. 

June Carbone, a law professor at the University specializing in assisted reproduction, said it is difficult to tell exactly what could happen to abortion both on the state and federal levels.

“The reason this is complicated is that, I think, it will be a game of reaction and action,” Carbone said.  

A complete federal abortion ban is unlikely, Carbone said, and there would likely be exceptions that permit abortion in cases of rape or incest. 

Congress is discussing a few propositions, Carbone said. For example, U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham proposed a 15-week abortion ban in September, and politicians on the state and federal level have tried to put fetal personhood laws in place since 1973, which would consider fetuses living people and protected from abortion.

“Trump has gone back and forth as to whether he would sign such a thing,” Carbone said. “It depends on what’s going on in his head at the moment, so it’s very hard to predict. The thing about Trump is he shakes things up, he disrupts and therefore the traditional assumptions don’t apply.”

There are still a lot of questions about whether an abortion ban would be constitutional, especially given the current makeup of the Supreme Court, Carbone said. 

“We know that there are Christian nationalists on the Supreme Court, I’m thinking of Samuel Alito, and what that means is Alito would uphold any abortion restriction of any kind on any grounds,” Carbone said. “I’m willing to predict that, but I don’t know if he’s got five votes for that.”

During Joe Biden’s presidency, his administration instated regulations making it easier to access abortion pills, as states are not permitted to ban the abortion pill mifepristone and the pill can be sent via mail or prescribed through telehealth, Carbone said. She added the Trump Administration is likely to rescind those regulations, but it would take a while to be put into effect. 

Instead of viewing states as havens or not, Negri said the discussion should be reframed to be about sending states and receiving states. This means states where abortion is protected send abortion health care, like abortion pills, to states where abortion rights have been stripped. 

Negri said Minnesota might not have the infrastructure to support an increase in abortions being sought after in-state. According to Unrestrict Minnesota, the state has only nine abortion clinics. 

Because of the small number of clinics in Minnesota, an influx of patients would be strenuous on providers, said Lauren Ruhrold, a graduate student at the University of Minnesota’s Program in the History of Medicine. Many clinics only provide abortions one day a week with only one or two providers, sometimes traveling from out of state.  

“Think of the number of appointments you could possibly fit into one day of the week,” Ruhrold said. “How do you prevent fatigue for your staff?”

While abortion is protected in Minnesota’s constitution, Ruhrold said the protections are fragile and could change at any moment. 

“Just because abortion is legal here doesn’t mean that getting an abortion is easy or totally straightforward. Abortion has a really long, turbulent history, especially in Minnesota around restrictions,” Ruhrold said. “And those protections are fragile. You know, they can always change.”

Emily Winderman, a professor of communication studies at the University who studies health and medicine, said some laws are not actively being enforced but could resurface in an attempt to restrict abortion. The Comstock Act of 1873, which inhibits the use of the U.S. Postal Service to send obscene content, could be used to restrict the mailing of abortion pills. 

“There is a precedent for birth control information having been suppressed. Margaret Sanger was indicted for violating the Comstock Act,” Winderman said. “It is something that, I believe, could very well be easily reinforced without necessarily going through congressional processes that would be the same thing as instituting and creating policy.”

Margaret Sanger was a prominent activist for sex education and birth control access in the 20th century. Sanger was indicted under the Comstock Act for distributing information about birth control because it was described as “lewd” content. 

Winderman said most abortions occur in the first trimester when abortion pills are frequently prescribed. Enforcing the Comstock Act could completely prohibit abortion pills from being sent to people early in their pregnancy. 

Negri said there are many groups in Minnesota working to protect abortion access by supporting health care providers and lobbying for reproductive health care access, such as Unrestrict Minnesota and Minnesota Abortion Action Committee.